— London, Uk
— From: Giles Whittell
Long stories short
- The NYT report that Donald Trump paid no federal income tax in ten of the past 15 years was rejected by Trump as “fake” but still gives Joe Biden fresh ammunition for tomorrow’s first debate (more below).
- At least 24 people have died in a flare-up of the 30 year-old conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.
- The UK’s shadow education secretary has urged the government to delay the start of the university term in England and Wales because of coronavirus, which has already trapped thousands of students in halls of residence with limited access to food and healthcare.
The ninth and final round of formal pre-withdrawal Brexit trade talks starts tomorrow with much ground to be covered but only one plausible outcome: a deal.
At times these talks have felt like divorce proceedings between parents resigned to grievous collateral damage because they’re tired and proud and anyway the well is poisoned. But the no-deal / clean break outcome dreamed of by Brexit ultras looks marginally less likely than a return of common sense :
- One of the two main outstanding areas of disagreement, whether the UK will abide by EU state aid rules, looks capable of resolution. Sources tell the Times a breakthrough is in sight, possibly based on a UK undertaking to avoid unfair subsidies while asserting full control of policy in principle.
- The other big sticking point – fisheries – will probably go down to the wire but a) there’s room for movement by the EU on its position that annual quota negotiations are impossible and b) there’s an imperative for movement on the British side if it wants to preserve access to EU markets for its fish.
- Trucks. Michael Gove sent a “shock and awe” letter to industry leaders last week warning of two-day, 7,000-vehicle queues in Kent in a “reasonable worst case scenario” whether or not there’s a deal. Even if there is, hauliers still have to fill out customs declarations. If there isn’t, they’ll have to deal with tariffs too, and two-day queues could be the least of it.
I’ve always thought monster traffic queues would cut through as images of real-world Brexit in a way that nothing else has or will. Word is that Gove is worried about them too, and so he should be. There’s a breezy “Check, Change, Go” campaign to get haulage firms ready for 31 December, but it doesn’t seem to be working – yet. It “gives the impression that Brexit-related changes are like getting an MOT,” Adam Marshall, Director-General of the British Chambers of Commerce, told Yahoo Finance last week, “whereas the reality for many businesses is they’re more akin to planning a moon landing.”
In the app today… For several months, Claudia Williams has been investigating the fertility industry. Our Big Egg file starts today with her podcast on ProFaM, a company that offers women the chance to preserve fertility and delay the menopause. Does it work? Does anyone want it? Have a listen. Also: sign up for tonight’s ThinkIn on whether Boris Johnson can survive in office, and tomorrow’s, at 8am, on whether hydrogen is the answer to the question of how to get to net zero carbon emissions.
wealth investment, fairness, prosperity
Trump’s taxes
First things first: the NYT investigation of Trump’s tax returns is a sensational scoop that in any remotely recogniseable political landscape would hit the Trump campaign like a wide-bore howitzer and leave it a smouldering wreck. But the campaign – permanent since 2015 – has transformed that landscape and thrown a force field round the candidate. The finding that Trump paid a total of $1500 in federal income tax in 2016 and 2017 combined, and none at all in 10 of the previous 15 years, will sway some swing voters and raise eyebrows all round but may not move the political dial any more than publication of the “grab ‘em by the pussy” tape did four years ago.
The key findings besides those headline numbers:
- Trump isn’t lying when he says he’s being audited. He claimed a $700 million loss and a $72 million tax refund at the time of the crash, when he hoped a rule change approved by President Obama allowed him to. That is now contested, and he could owe $100 million if the auditors (and Congress) find against him.
- Trump wrote off large sums against tax by paying “consultancy fees” to an unnamed person who now appears to be his daughter, Ivanka.
- His other write-offs include $70,000 for hairstyling and $21 million for agreeing not to develop a Trump family bolthole in upstate New York.
To tip an election, an “October surprise” has to be a surprise. Never mind that it’s still September. It is no surprise that Trump is a serial tax dodger. He effectively admitted as much in the 2016 debate with Hillary Clinton when he said “that makes me smart”. The question now is whether the detail unearthed by the NYT persuades a significant number of Americans who were still on the fence that he is in fact devious and amoral rather than smart.
new things technology, science, engineering
David Attenborough on Instagram
Britain’s best-known naturalist has become the fastest ever Instagram user to acquire a million followers, at 94. David Attenborough beat Jennifer Aniston’s previous record by reaching the million mark in four hours and 44 minutes last Thursday. “Saving our planet is now a communications challenge,” he said in his first post. (Aniston’s time, last October, was five hours and 16 minutes. Pope Francis set a record of 12 hours in 2016.)
our planet environment, natural resources, geopolitics 
Great Weeds
Bloomberg Businessweek has a fascinating story on efforts at the Salk lab in California to genetically tweak weeds and crops to absorb more carbon as they grow, and thereby save the planet. The CROPS project (carbon removal on a planetary scale) is currently focused on Arabidopsis thaliana, a common weed. Salk scientists are using the Crispr-Cas9 gene editing system to increase its production of suberin in its roots. Suberin is a substance prominent in cork that locks up carbon for decades rather than just the life of the weed. The idea is then to modify staple crops in similar ways, so that even as they provide food above ground they drag more carbon below – and leave it there.
the 100-year life health, education, living, public policy
Genes and Covid
Staying with genetics, a mystery as to why siblings with Covid can have starkly and tragically different experiences of the disease may be close to being solved. In each of two pairs of brothers studied by researchers in the Netherlands, one died and one lived. And in each case the one who died did not appear to produce enough of an immune molecule called type 1 interferon to stop the virus replicating. Both pairs of brothers were young and healthy before being infected. There is a long way to go before we understand this thing.
Belonging Identity, Society, Beliefs, Countries
Grandees in the frame
Non-UK readers may scratch their heads at the attention being paid to two appointments mooted by Boris Johnson’s government, but they could have a seismic impact on British society and identity. The first involves Charles Moore, a Tory peer and Margaret Thatcher’s official biographer, informally nominated as next chairman of the BBC. He would decriminalise non-payment of the license fee on which the BBC depends, upending its funding model, stability and status. The second involves Paul Dacre, former editor of the Daily Mail, as head of Ofcom, the media regulator. Dacre was a wildly effective editor of the paper Tory voters tend to fold up inside the Daily Telegraph. Both are hardline Brexiteers and demonisers of what they see as a liberal group-think everywhere in the British media landscape left of The Times. There are hurdles to clear before either is installed, but the mere mention of their names in this context will have raised blood pressure in every North London postcode, and a few south of the river too.
The week ahead
UK:
28/09 – restrictions limiting weddings in England to 15 attendees come into force; hearings begin at temporary court in the Lowry in Salford; updated UK post-transition border operating model likely to be published this week, 29/09 – BBC chairman and director general questioned by parliamentary select committee, 30/09 – lockdown measures in Rhondda Cynon Taf, Wales, due to be reviewed; Plaid Cymru virtual conference starts, 01/10 – coronavirus restrictions in Wales and Northern Ireland reviewed, 03/10 – virtual Conservative Party conference starts
World:
28/09 – EU-UK Joint Committee meets in Brussels, 29/09 – first election debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden takes place in Cleveland, Ohio; final talks between UK and EU starts in Brussels; representatives of Kosovo and Serbia meet in EU-mediated negotiations, 30/09 – Hong Kong court hearing for activist Josua Wong, arrested for attending an unauthorised demonstration; UN Summit on Biodiversity in New York, 01/10 – China celebrates National Day with protests in Hong Kong considered likely; EU leaders summit on Eastern Mediterranean, postponed from last week, 02/10 – Michel Barnier and David Frost due to meet in Brussels to conclude ninth round of Brexit negotiations; Dolly Parton to release a Christmas album, A Holly Dolly Christmas, 03/10 – German Day of Unity celebrates 30 years since the reunification; Giro d’Italia starts, 04/10 – New Caledonia holds referendum on independence from France; parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan; tidal bore due at Qiantang River in China
Giles Whittell
@GWhittell
