What just happened
- New York City closed schools again as the US Covid death toll passed 250,000.
- A report found that Australia’s special forces were involved in the murder of 39 Afghan civilians between 2005 and 2016.
- Experts said the dinosaurs would have continued to thrive, but for an asteroid.
The pandemic continues to absorb most of the rich world’s energies. Trump’s assault on democracy continues to distract like a traffic accident. Even so, there are at least three reasons to pay close attention to surging violence in northern Ethiopia:
- There is evidence of appalling crimes by both sides in the conflict in Tigray, and it’s causing a humanitarian emergency in Sudan. Following an apparent massacre of civilians by separatist forces in the town of Mai-Kadra on 9 November, tens of thousands have fled to Sudan where refugees speak of “a genocide against the Tigray people”. Witnesses tell the Washington Post ($) that reprisals by government forces have included machete attacks and beheadings.
- It’s barely a year since Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s prime minister, won the Nobel Peace Prize for turning his country away from war and repression towards pluralism and prosperity. There seemed little doubt that he deserved it at the time. He’d made peace with Eritrea, released political prisoners and transformed Addis Ababa into a hub of enterprise and hope. A year on, conflict has returned to Oromia in the south as well as Tigray, an Ireland-sized area bordering Eritrea whose leaders have lost national influence under Abiy. The Norwegian Nobel Committee has implored him to resolve these disputes “by peaceful means”.
- Now instability threatens the Horn of Africa – again. Ethiopia, Eritrea and Sudan have endured decades of authoritarian leadership and are among the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change. Four thousand refugees a day are arriving in Sudan, which is ill-equipped to host them.
Abiy has warned his forces will carry out “a final, critical act of law enforcement” in Tigray’s capital within days. So much more than his own reputation hinges on whether he can find it in himself to exercise restraint.
Rolling over
There’s a good chance of a UK-Canada trade deal by 31 December, Bloomberg reports. Talks are advanced and progressing well, the UK says. And Justin Trudeau, the Canadian PM, says this is “a really easy one”. No kidding. All either side wants is to roll over the existing trade agreement negotiated on Britain’s behalf by the EU. The same thing has already been accomplished with Japan, and the UK hopes for fourteen more rollovers by the end of the year. With apologies for repeating the point – and an invitation to put me straight if I’m missing something – this is the reality of post-Brexit Britain’s independent trade policy: a scramble for the status quo. Divergence may follow and apparently it will bring prosperity. We’ll see.
Getting around
New York’s subway system faces a $12 billion shortfall and not much hope of filling it if Republicans retain control of the US Senate and decline to help out with federal funds. In that event the number of trains running could fall by 40 per cent, the NYT reports ($). For America, this is partly a story about ideological aversions to public transport and Democrat-dominated cities. For the world at large, there’s a big systemic problem looming if people continue to fight shy of public transport systems even after Covid vaccines make it safe again. Most of these systems depend on ticket revenue as well as public subsidy. When that revenue dries up the systems atrophy and we’re into a downward spiral of reduced service and under-use. And that accelerates if employers seek to cut office costs by encouraging people to work from home even post-Covid. So what’s next? A new age of hollowed-out city centres explored only by tourists on e-bikes? Maybe. It’s not too late to sign up for our Future of Cities summit today to find out.
