Sensemaker: Trump vs. the rebels

• The UK recorded 1,564 Covid-related deaths, more than in any other single day since the start of the pandemic.
• The internet went down in Uganda before today’s presidential election, in which pop star Bobi Wine seeks to prevent Yoweri Museveni winning a sixth term.
• Research by Public Health England showed that having Covid can provide as much immunity as vaccines, for at least five months.

About three more House Republicans than expected voted to impeach Trump for insurrection, a total of ten including the redoubtable Liz Cheney (who said Trump “summoned the mob, assembled the mob and lit the flame of [last Wednesday’s] attack”). That makes yesterday’s vote not just the first time a US president has been impeached twice but the most bipartisan US impeachment vote ever. Given that Trump’s said he won’t attend Biden’s inauguration the removal vans could start pulling up outside the White House any time. His staff are already packing up.

The disgrace is virtually complete. Mitch McConnell, in his last big call as outgoing Senate leader, confirmed he won’t convene Trump’s Senate trial until after Biden takes office, but left wide open the possibility that he’d vote to convict*. At least 16 other Republicans would have to join him for an actual conviction. For now it’s hard to see that happening. The question: what could change between now and the trial that would turn more Republicans against him?

A few things:

• Recon tours. Angry House Democrats led by an ex-Navy pilot from New Jersey are demanding closer investigation of Capitol tours given by die-hard Trump supporters for die-hard Trump supporters on 5 January. Were they casing the joint? If so it could be harder for Senators to back Trump when the trial comes than it was for House members last night.
• Donors. Walmart, Amazon and even Charles Koch, the billionaire bundler for conservative causes, are telling tame Republicans the money will dry up if they cling to stolen election conspiracy theories. No one gets reelected without a war chest, and the midterms are in 2022.
• The next six days. The FBI has warned security staff at all 50 state capitols of possible trouble leading up to inauguration day, and there are now more US troops in DC than in Iraq and Afghanistan combined. If the Proud Boys or others on the rancid Right try anything like 6 January again, the whole calculus for Senate Republicans minded to stick with Trump at his trial will be turned on its head. Again.

The man himself is not happy, especially with his lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who’s invoiced the president for $20,000 a day for his services over the past few disastrous weeks. According to the Washington Post, Trump has told his people not to pay. 

*McConnell and others could still swing back behind the Trumpists. As the pollster and political strategist Frank Luntz reminded the BBC last night, two thirds of those who voted for Trump in November still believe the election was stolen and more than half would still vote for him in 2024. A conviction in the Senate would at least prevent him running.