What just happened
- Boris Johnson apologised for attending a party in his Downing Street garden two years ago, telling the House of Commons he thought it was a work event (more below).
- The premier of Quebec province said people not vaccinated against Covid would face a new health tax.
- North Korea claimed to have launched a missile carrying a “hypersonic gliding vehicle” designed to be almost impossible to intercept.
A manufactured crisis in eastern Ukraine is unfolding more or less as Vladimir Putin hoped. He’s dragged the US into talks that shouldn’t be happening, brought to the boil a simmering quarrel about responsibility for European security, and kept the western alliance guessing about his next move and ultimate goal:
- Convening power. Last month Moscow published a draft agreement with Nato and the US proposing to end its military build-up around Ukraine if Nato agreed that a) Ukraine would never become a member and b) it would never position forces or weapons in (Eastern European) countries that joined after 1997. The proposals were non-starters and Putin knew it but they are the subject of this week’s talks in Geneva and Brussels anyway.
- Hurt feelings. Neither EU members nor even Nato are at the main event in Switzerland, because Biden blundered at the start of this chess match by agreeing to bilateral talks with Russia over European security without Europe at the table, as if the Cold War had never ended. It was a fait accompli that infuriated Olaf Scholz on his first day as German chancellor even though he’s been too polite to say so in public. When Wendy Sherman, the chief US negotiator, says the US is now running things “in lockstep” with Nato, she’s playing catch-up.
- Guessing game. No one knows if this ends with a bang or a whimper – Putin probably included. But he’s achieved his main aim by keeping the US in receive mode while he transmits mixed signals. On Monday his deputy foreign minister called the Geneva talks deep and concrete. Yesterday his spokesman said there were no results to report. Putin has had plenty of chances to rule out invading Ukraine, and hasn’t taken them. Instead, fighter jets and attack helicopters have been sent to join 100,000 Russian soldiers near the border.
Sherman’s name (and nickname, “The Fox”), are not the only echoes of World War Two in this mess. There are also shades of Munich as jet-lagged US negotiators struggle to fathom Russia’s real aims and Team Putin holds all the cards having changed the facts on the ground. That said…
- Sherman has at least stated clearly there is no question of allowing Russia to dictate who is eligible for Nato membership, and;
- there are non-military solutions, including a deal whereby Moscow stands its forces down in return for certification of Nord Stream 2, the pipeline that could double Russian gas exports to Europe.
The trouble with that kind of deal is it would accurately be called appeasement.
