What just happened
- Russia said it was pulling back some of its troops from the Ukrainian border, as supporters of the anti-corruption campaigner Alexei Navalny said he faced a possible ten-year jail sentence on bogus corruption charges.
- A speech at the weekend by the conservative French presidential candidate Valérie Pecresse was described by a member of her own party as a Titanic flop.
- Novak Djokovic said he would continue to refuse to be vaccinated against Covid even if it meant missing more grand slams.
They got Al Capone on tax evasion. It’s conceivable that US law enforcement could get Donald Trump on something similar. He’s been doggedly pursued by the New York State attorney general for allegedly inflating the value of his properties for loans, and now he’s been abandoned by his accountants (more below). There are even signs that his grip on the Republican Party could be weakening. So the question arises…
Is America getting over Trump? That would be hasty. He remains by far the most powerful figure on the Right. His endorsement is sought by state and national political candidates beating a path to Mar-a-Lago every weekend and the Republican presidential nomination for 2024 is his to lose even though he’s 75.
And yet…
- Recent polls show the share of Republican and Republican-leaning voters who want him as their next White House candidate falling from about 60 per cent to about 50 since last November.
- The old party establishment is regrouping to urge moderates to run against Trump-backed candidates on the basis that the latter might win primaries but could lose against strong Democrats in swing states. Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell has joined forces with ex-President Bush to back centrists as Senate candidates in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. They need a net gain of at least one to win back the Senate in November.
- It’s not a good look when your accountants fire you, as Trump’s have. Mazars USA, the New York firm that has looked after the Trump Organization’s books since 2002, wrote to its chief legal officer last month saying it could no longer stand by ten years’ worth of records because of findings by its own and the state attorney general’s investigations – including that Trump overvalued his own Manhattan penthouse by $200 million to get a loan.
Trump has tried to dismiss the attorney general’s investigation as a political witch hunt, and it’s true Letitia James is an elected Democrat. But the Mazars move won’t hurt her efforts to force Trump, his son Don Jr and daughter Ivanka to be questioned under oath. And even though James’ investigation is civil she has found ways to channel evidence to the Manhattan district attorney’s office, which is pursuing a criminal one.
Red states will tune out what happens in New York law offices. Swing states might not. The acid test of Trump’s power over the party will come in Arizona, where Republican Governor Doug Ducey, a popular former ice cream salesman, refused to overturn Joe Biden’s victory despite Trump’s claims of fraud last year. McConnell, Bush and others want him to run for the Senate. Ducey’s flattered by the attention – but firmly on the fence.
