What just happened
- Russia’s front line in north-east Ukraine collapsed (more below).
- Belgium’s largest-ever terrorism trial opened in the case of the 2016 Brussels attacks that killed 32 and injured hundreds more.
- Spain’s 19 year-old Carlos Alcaraz won the US Open and became the world tennis number one.
The UK is inviting the world to witness the ceremonies that preserve its constitutional monarchy. Ukraine is fighting for its life and for democracy, and winning. Both stories are about the sweep of history, accelerating across the Donbas even as pomp and circumstance attempt to slow it down in London.
King. The apprenticeship is over. Plans in place for decades are unrolling into action to a backdrop of trumpets and gold braid. It feels already as if Britain’s new king is determined chiefly to do what he can to keep the UK united, by force of air miles if not charisma.
- Charles the Busy. Since last Thursday Charles III has become king, started to process the loss of his mother and travelled from Dumfries to Balmoral and London. He returns to Scotland today to greet Scottish parliamentarians, lead a vigil and remind the world that even if Scotland votes for independence there are no plans – yet – for it to renounce the monarchy. Tomorrow he’s in Northern Ireland, where devolved government is paralysed by unionists who can’t accept a Sinn Fein majority in the province, and who, as one put it to the FT’s Jude Webber, will “cling to their Britishness” all the more fiercely now. Can Charles slow the drift towards Irish reunification? Without overtly getting into politics it will be hard. On Friday he will be in Wales.
- Dissent. There has not been much. A history lecturer was arrested and de-arrested for yelling “who elected him?” after the royal proclamation was read out in an Oxford church. Hecklers on the Royal Mile in Edinburgh attracted the attention of police and the dismay of others who’d waited hours to applaud the royal hearse at the end of its six-hour drive from Aberdeenshire. But images of William and Harry together outside Balmoral set a tone of national truce that’s likely to hold at least until the funeral next Monday.
- Remembrance. That funeral will be the biggest occasion of its kind – commemoration as pretext for an impromptu global summit – since Nelson Mandela’s in 2013. Biden, Macron, Erdogan and Ardern (who faces a 24-hour flight from Auckland) are among dozens of heads of state and government already confirmed. London will be “full”. Those who want to see the Queen lying in state could face 20-hour queues. In the meantime, random acts of remembrance like this one at London Bridge have heartened a country anxious to learn something about itself from the Queen’s death.
- Standstill. The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee delayed a rate rise. The Met Office shrunk its output to daily weather reports only. The Premier League postponed a weekend’s worth of matches in a season already squeezed by the World Cup. The day of the royal funeral was declared a bank holiday despite NHS managers’ concerns about cancelled operations and appointments. There is a rationale – for many people this will be a once-in-a-lifetime event – but it’s being tested.
- The grimace. Was the new king trying to communicate irritation and amusement, or pure irritation, when he pulled a face at aides while signing his new contract with the nation on Saturday? Only he knows.
Country. Ukraine’s breakneck advance into formerly Russian-held territory at the weekend was so dramatic that it replaced British royalty at the top of most non-British news bulletins and, crucially, proved impossible for Russians themselves to ignore.
Two key cities – Kupiansk and Izyum – were liberated.
Ukrainian troops were last night reported to be at the outskirts of a third, Severodonetsk, which Russia’s army fought for months to capture.
In northern Kharkiv province, Ukrainian forces posted footage on social media platforms from a checkpoint in Hoptivka, less than 5 km from the Russian border.
Ukraine’s President Zelensky claims his military has liberated more than 30 settlements and 3,000 square km of territory since last Tuesday. His own senior commanders have warned against overconfidence, and Russia hit back last night with missile strikes on Ukraine’s power grid. But the past week’s fighting has been Kyiv’s most significant victory since March, for at least three reasons:
- Strategy. The advance in Kharkiv province was on Russian lines weakened by Moscow’s decision to divert forces to the south in response to Ukraine’s promised counter-attack on Kherson in the south. As a bait-and-switch it worked a dream.
- Tactics. Military analysts say the signs are Ukrainian forces – and special forces – simply outfought what Russian troops they encountered with better planning, better coordination of ground and air assets and better use of intelligence, much of it provided by the US.
- Timing. From the point of view of debates in Germany about whether to continue providing arms to Ukraine and how much pain to endure by not buying energy from Russia, the surge could not have come at a better time. Zelensky has shown that in the fight for European democracy, weapons work.
- Moscow mood. Not good. Ramzan Kadyrov, the pro-Kremlin Chechen leader who has sent thousands of fighters to the front, says Putin needs to order full mobilisation, declare war and replace his commanders. Members of the St Petersburg city duma have called for Putin’s impeachment for treason. Anchors and guests on state TV channels admit openly that the “war” effort – no longer just a special military operation – is failing. Putin is now a moderate compared with some of his nationalist critics. The risk of escalation has never been greater – yet nor has the risk to his position.
