Sensemaker Daily
Labour MPs have been told the party could fail to take any seats from three by-elections in Tory seats in England next month, including Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Johnson stood down earlier this month after a report found he misled parliament over lockdown gatherings. Labour is widely expected to take his former seat, which Johnson held with a slim majority of 7,210.
But sources from both main parties told Tortoise that the Uxbridge seat in west London had become “a referendum on Ulez”, the city’s ultra-low emission zone, a levy on polluting vehicles introduced by Labour mayor Sadiq Khan in 2020.
The charge is due to be expanded to cover all of Greater London this August. A recent consultation found that 70 per cent of outer London residents opposed the change.
Labour’s shadow front bench was briefed last week that Uxbridge was looking tougher than expected as a result, while Conservative MPs said they were increasingly confident Uxbridge would stay blue.
A Labour spokesman said the briefing was a reflection of the challenge ahead in overturning sizeable majorities. But one Labour MP told Tortoise it fed into a general fear of voter apathy.
The MP said: “What are we offering people? What reasons are we giving them to vote for us? Where is the hope?”
Outside London, Labour’s hopes of gaining ground in other seats also appear to be ebbing.
Selby, the North Yorkshire seat where Johnson ally Nigel Adams had a comfortable 20,137 majority, is expected to swing towards Labour, but sources suggested it would not be enough to win the seat.
The Liberal Democrats are expected to take Somerton & Frome, after former Conservative MP David Warburton resigned over sexual misconduct claims. All three by-elections are due to take place on July 20, before MPs depart for their summer break.
That leaves Labour pinning their hopes on Rutherglen and Hamilton West in Scotland, which is being contested after former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier was suspended for breaking Covid rules during the pandemic.
One issue hampering their chances is the shadow Treasury’s recent command not to make any uncosted spending commitments in the run-up to next year’s election. Sources said this had left them stymied in their efforts to come up with substantive policies.
A flagship £28 billion-a-year green plan has been watered down, while proposals for Labour to bring back the Department for International Development (Dfid) and reinstate an overseas aid target have been put on ice because of cost concerns.
A Labour spokesperson said the party would reinstate the UK’s aid target of 0.7 per cent of GDP “as soon as the fiscal environment allows”.
MPs have also been grumbling about the much-delayed reshuffle of Labour’s front ranks, and Keir Starmer’s failure to create a shadow science, innovation and technology department that would mirror the one created by Rishi Sunak in February.
The Times reported yesterday that a reshuffle was now expected to take place shortly after the by-elections.
According to the paper, deputy leader Angela Rayner could be moved into the shadow housing and levelling up role currently held by Lisa Nandy, who faces demotion.
Sunak is also expected to hold a Conservative reshuffle around the same time as the by-elections, in which female ministers including Suella Braverman, the home secretary, Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, Thérèse Coffey, the environment secretary and a clutch of junior female ministers are said to be at risk.
One current member of the Government said there will be “a complete purge… to make room for Rishi ultra-loyalists who still need jobs”.
A spokesperson for the prime minister, who had previously denied plans for a July reshuffle, did not deny these latest rumours.
Photograph Carl Court/Getty Images