A swing and a miss

At first glance, England’s three by-election results suggest little by way of a national trend. The Conservatives lost two seats: Somerton and Frome, as expected, fell to the Liberal Democrats; while Labour overturned a huge 20,000 majority in Selby and Ainsty. Uxbridge and South Ruislip, where the Tories had a much smaller majority of 7,400, stayed blue (just), with the Tories weaponising the hated Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) charge being expanded by Labour’s London mayor Sadiq Khan. The 24 per cent swing in Selby, and 29 per cent in Somerton, is nightmarish for Tories reading the tea leaves ahead of next year’s general election, but Labour’s miss in Uxbridge reinforces perceptions of a soft poll lead. As focus group guru Luke Tryll says: “Uxbridge gives the Conservatives a short term sigh of relief… But the scale of that Selby result means you’d far rather be Keir Starmer than Rishi Sunak right now.”

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