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Predictive policing

London’s Met is trying to catch potential rapists early

Police in London are planning to compile league tables of men who expose themselves in public as part of an effort to prevent them committing more serious sex crimes. There’s a one-in-20 chance that suspects in flashing cases will go on to be named as suspects in rape cases within three years, according to a study cited by the Met Police’s first chief scientific officer, Professor Lawrence Sherman. There’s also clear statistical evidence that a small number of highly dangerous sex offenders are responsible for an outsize proportion of violence against women and girls (VAWG): the worst 100 in the city are 1,000 times more dangerous than most other VAWG suspects, Sherman says, and they are responsible for 5 per cent of all recorded violence of this kind. The idea is to “investigate” more fully suspects who are the subject of repeated criminal complaints, rather than charge them with crimes not yet committed. Part of the impetus for Sherman’s work is the case of David Carrick, the police officer jailed for 30 years in February for dozens of rapes and other sexual assaults over a 17-year period. The Times’ Fiona Hamilton has the scoop


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