Labour is heading into its party conference with a new MP and the wind at its back after a stunning win in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election in Scotland.
Turnout was low and one by-election is never a reliable indicator of national trends, but a 20.4 per cent swing to Labour from the Scottish National Party prompted forecasts of a wipeout for the SNP at the next election and an overall majority for Labour. Michael Shanks took the seat with 17,845 votes – more than twice the SNP’s tally.
The Conservatives came third with just 3.9 per cent of the vote share, forfeiting their £500 deposit.
The by-election, which was called after former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier was ousted by her constituents for breaking Covid rules, is the latest test of polls that have consistently put Sir Keir Starmer’s party 20 points ahead of the Conservatives.
The coming weeks see a further two by-elections, in Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire, by which Starmer will be judged.
But winning back seats in Scotland, where Labour was all but wiped out in 2019, is essential if the party is to succeed in ousting Rishi Sunak at the next national ballot.
Shanks joins Ian Murray as Labour’s only MPs representing seats north of the border.
Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University and co-presenter of Tortoise’s new series Trendy, told the BBC it was a “remarkably good result” for Labour.
He added: “It does now look as though, perhaps, Labour has some opportunity of becoming once again the largest party in Westminster [in Scotland].”