The Scottish National Party is not looking good in the run up to its annual conference next week. First was a defeat in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, where they lost their seat to Scottish Labour. Now MP for East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Dr Lisa Cameron has announced she is defecting to the Conservatives, citing a “toxic bullying” culture in her former party. The Tories seem more than happy to welcome her, with the Prime Minister releasing a statement calling her “brave”. These blows to the SNP are reflected in current polling which suggests a decline in interest in the party, as Scottish people prioritise the cost of living crisis over independence. Despite the approval rating for Scottish independence remaining at a steady rate since the referendum in 2014, only 20 per cent of voters thought Scottish Independence should be a main priority in the next general election, including only 47 per cent of SNP voters. Instead voters want to prioritise combatting more tangible issues like improving the NHS and education.
Dr Lisa Cameron has already shown an affinity with Union parties by voting against so-called “buffer zones” that would prevent protesters organising outside abortion clinics. SNP members typically abstain from English-only laws but in this instance Cameron voted as a “matter of conscience”. The Westminster Accounts shows she received a £6,600 donation this years from Christian Action Research and Education (CARE), a charity that campaigns against abortion and assisted suicide. Humza Yousef called her defection “the least-surprising news I’ve had as leader of the SNP”, given that she was also facing a selection battle in her constituency that she was expected to lose.
Despite Dr Cameron’s feeling that she would be better off amongst the Tories, it seems Labour is best positioned to take advantage of the SNP’s decline. Like most of the country, polling shows a disillusionment with the current political figures across the board; there are overwhelmingly unfavourable views on every major party leader, although Sunak is by far the biggest loser. This seems to have galvanised the opposition, as both Labour and SNP voters have strong contingents more focussed on the Conservatives losing than their party winning.