Capital Economy, Business and Finance
Be afraid, especially if you manage money or run a central bank. Record debts, high rates and the high chance that they will stay high because of inflationary pressures exacerbated by war in the Middle East all mean “there is a lot… that could go wrong,” the IMF’s deputy head said in Marrakech at the weekend. (Gita Gopinath, a former Harvard economics professor, has a talent for understatement.) Those looking for bright spots in the global economy will alight on India and the US, where the IMF has raised its growth forecasts by 0.2 and 0.3 per cent to 6.3 and 2.2 per cent respectively. That doesn’t mean the view from Wall Street is sunny. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, tells the FT this is “the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades”. American bankers content to keep their eyes on the local horizon may be reassured by economists’ consensus that the US will now dodge recession. But it’s hard not to review the past seven years of self-inflicted injuries to free trade, peace and prosperity, and wonder what might have been.