The UK’s Conservatives have suffered an historic by-election defeat, losing two of their longest held seats to Labour. The Labour victory in Mid Bedfordshire is the largest numerical majority ever overturned in a by-election. In percentage terms, the Tamworth result is the second-biggest swing from the Conservatives to Labour in a by-election since 1945. If the Tamworth result were replicated across the whole country, the Conservatives would lose 347 seats, shunting the so-called party of power out of government and indeed out of the official opposition – coming third behind the Liberal Democrats.
Labour would have 537 seats, giving Sir Keir Starmer a majority of 424: for context, Boris Johnson secured an 80-seat majority in 2019. Professor Sir John Curtice, co-host of Tortoise’s Trendy podcast, told the BBC: “No government has hitherto lost to the principal opposition party, in a by-election, a seat as safe as Tamworth… This result also shows a potential risk to the Conservatives of how they might get caught in a pincer movement between some of their former leave voters wandering off to Labour and others going off to Reform UK.”
By-elections are very different from general elections: they are often used as protest votes by those who turn out, and generally have a far lower participation rate. But these results, alongside Labour’s consistent lead of around 20 points in opinion polls, point to more than mid-term blues for Rishi Sunak.
The prime minister has limited options in the remaining time before a general election, now expected in around a year. A reshuffle has been rumoured for some time, but comes with the risk of making enemies while appearing to do little more than moving deckchairs.
Greg Hands, the party chairman, told Sky News he would not be resigning, but he is in the firing line even so. Suella Braverman, the home secretary, has long been viewed as at-risk, but provides a useful buffer on immigration.
With his first year anniversary looming, Sunak’s grace period is coming to an end and some backbenchers may take matters into their own hands. Although it would appear suicidal, there are threats of rebellions on key bills and of letters of no confidence being submitted once the one-year threshold has passed.
Today’s results have strengthened the resolve among some of Sunak’s colleagues to get rid of him while they still can. One former minister told Tortoise: “Tory MP Whatsapp groups [are] ominously silent, so he is in trouble. It is playing out as expected.” This MP, now a backbencher, added: “It is our job to actually win elections. We know he cannot win it and the defeat he will take us to will be 1997-style, putting us out for 15 years.. Bottom line, they will take him out in November and the new leader will call an election in May and limit the losses to deprive Labour of a majority.”
In 1997 Labour won a landslide 179-seat majority under Tony Blair.
Another former cabinet minister said there would be “no moves,” adding: “The majority of MPs have been bought off with jobs and promises of jobs. I’m afraid it’s a shallow swamp of self-interest and I don’t think the majority have any idea as to what’s about to hit them at the general election.”
There are many problems facing the would-be rebels, not least because ousting three prime ministers in five years is hardly electoral catnip. There is no obvious candidate to replace Sunak, though potential contenders include chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, foreign secretary James Cleverly, and Braverman.
Whoever may emerge, there is an increasing belief that all the Tories can do now is mitigate losses and the length of time they are in opposition. On the basis of today’s results, long-term damage may already be baked in.