Jeremy Hunt has two weeks to decide whether to be conservative or Conservative with the UK economy. The chancellor’s caution on tax so far this year, notably in holding down tax-free allowances, together with unexpected resilience in parts of the private sector, have given him £15 billion more in headroom than expected as he drafts his autumn statement. Many of his fellow Conservatives want him to use it to announce a tax cut later this month to reward enterprise, wrong-foot Labour and show fealty to Tory fundamentals. Jacob Rees-Mogg, for example, wants “one big thing,” The Times reports. But life is seldom as simple as Rees-Mogg wishes it was. The Bank of England has revised down its UK growth estimate for the year by a whole percentage point. Bloomberg says the UK may already be in a mild recession, and JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon says the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East could tip the world into a global one. If you are Rees-Mogg (or Liz Truss), these are all good reasons to cut taxes. Hunt may have other views. The autumn statement is on 22 November.