After 13 years in power Britain’s Conservatives are led by a prime minister who can’t control his home secretary, who’s behaving as if she wants to be sacked
Suella Braverman’s time in government appears to be running out. Yesterday the UK’s home secretary wrote a piece for the Times accusing the police of bias and comparing pro-Palestine “hate marchers” to those in Northern Ireland. Today the paper quotes a minister: “She’s toast.”
So what? Braverman has been a source of angst and trouble ever since Rishi Sunak reappointed her. Inflammatory comments about immigrants, grooming gangs, homosexuality and homelessness have gone unpunished. Tory MPs say the prime minister must now act if he is to salvage his authority.
Braverman’s column, which the PM’s spokesman said was “not approved by Number 10”, angered ministers and backbench colleagues.
In it, she:
- accused the (operationally independent) police force of playing “favourites” by having “enabled” Black Live Matters protestors while cracking down on anti-lockdown campaigns;
- conflated pro-Palestinian marches with those in Northern Ireland, specifically the Protestant Orange Order, angering many unionists;
- adapted her term “hate marches” into “hate marchers” – arguably lessening the impact, while insisting she did not “resile” from the meaning; and
- described those joining pro-Palestine marches as “mobs”.
According to the ministerial code, speeches and opinion pieces are meant to be signed off by Number 10. Downing Street says it’s “looking into the details of what happened in this specific incident”.
But Tory MPs are in little doubt as to what happened. For months, they’ve said she’s either acting as a culture war proxy with Sunak’s blessing, or goading him into firing her so she can wear her dismissal as a badge of honour in a campaign to replace him as leader. Increasingly, Westminster believes the latter.
“Either that or she’s remarkably careless with words,” one MP told Tortoise.
Waiting for SuCo. Some MPs argue Sunak has been holding off firing Braverman – or burying a demotion in a wider reshuffle – until after the Supreme Court rules on whether the UK can remove asylum seekers to Rwanda. The fate of that signature Braverman policy will be decided next Wednesday (15 November).
Or for Poppy Day. Others point to this weekend – Armistice Day and Remembrance Sunday – as a bad time to lose the person in charge of homeland security given the prospect of another pro-Palestinian march through central London.
“If one was going to end her employment, today wouldn’t be a good time to do it with everything coming up at the weekend,” a Conservative MP noted. “That being said, this is not how you run a country – it will lead to unrest… In the next few days, it’s game over.”
Paralysis? Several Conservative MPs – including ministers – say they have told Number 10 of their anger and frustration with the home secretary. Some have gone public. But many believe Sunak’s failure to sack her before now underscores his weakness as prime minister.
“He’s had plenty of chances before,” says one former minister. “He needs to show leadership. It’s totally unacceptable.”
Another MP said Number 10 was “paralysed by indecision”, and that while Braverman’s interventions were causing division within the party.
About that toast. Sources reported that the Times column had sparked several crisis meetings. Reshuffle rumours have returned with a vengeance.
Braverman may be toast in the short term but it’s hard to avoid the feeling that Sunak is looking toasty too.
- Nothing he has tried has left more than a dent in Labour’s 20-point lead in polls.
- His efforts to recast himself as a change agent only draw attention to his party’s 13 years in power.
- None of his five goals for this parliament – on growth, inflation, debt, small boats and the NHS – looks like a rallying cry for the next one.
Either way, allowing Braverman to stay in post has let her to build her profile in Westminster and the country.
The old joke that her “base” was a single MP – Sir John Hayes – is no more. Now she commands the support of increasing numbers of right-wing colleagues with at least one minister on resignation watch if Sunak pulls the trigger.
Braverman’s horizons have never been restricted to the current parliament, and she is now the best-known future leadership contender.
Ultimately, what to do about Suella will not be a question for Sunak, but for the remaining Conservative MPs and members – however many of them are left after the election.
