Sensemaker Daily
His flagship immigration policy is in tatters, and his ex-minister’s scorched earth departure is hogging the spotlight
Rishi Sunak managed just a day of defining the headlines. After last night’s poison pen letter from former home secretary Suella Braverman – timed to land hours before today’s Supreme Court decision on Rwanda and viewed more than 30 million times on X – he is once again battling members of his own party.
Having preemptively blamed the prime minister for “wishful thinking as a comfort blanket to avoid having to make hard choices” on Rwanda, Braverman has set the dividing lines for her Conservative colleagues.
Last night, in anticipation of today’s decision, backbenchers were seen “collaring colleagues after votes”, warning MPs of the impact the failure to stop refugees arriving by small boats would have on their seat. “Scare tactics… clear manoeuvring,” was one MP’s verdict.
Following this morning’s decision further meetings were underway with members of various right wing groups to work out next steps. The new home secretary, James Cleverly, will make a statement to the Commons, followed by a press conference from the prime minister this afternoon.
At least one minister, unaffected by this week’s reshuffle, is said to be on resignation watch and there is renewed talk of strategic rebellions. Votes on the King’s Speech, which is still making its way through the Commons, are treated as a confidence matter; defeat for the government could lead to a leadership challenge.
There are also calls for the government to pursue new legislation, with one MP suggesting it could take the form of “a treaty with Rwanda, enabling it to apply more control to the process”. However the Guardian last night reported that the Home Office has no plan B.
In a statement Sunak said he would “now consider next steps”, adding: “This was not the outcome we wanted, but we have spent the last few months planning for all eventualities and we remain completely committed to stopping the boats.”
MPs said this week’s events – including David Cameron’s return to government – will have prompted a flurry of no confidence letters to the backbench 1922 Committee, but estimated that it would be “no more” than 30. Others have warned that they will be submitting letters on the back of today’s Supreme Court judgement.
But a leadership challenge would require 53, and the majority of Tory MPs argue that it would further damage the party’s standing at a point when it is already 20 points behind Labour in the polls.
One former minister said Sunak should not dismiss the scale of pressure he is under, telling Tortoise: “If he doesn’t realise that action is necessary, having had that letter from Suella, he is not as bright as man as I think he is.”
And Braverman has (at least) one more trick up her sleeve. Included in her three-page resignation letter was reference to a document from October 2022, which she says Sunak agreed to – although she does not stipulate whether he signed it.
The suspicion among colleagues is that she could publish this supposedly damning evidence as early as this weekend. Equally, Braverman might find it more useful to hold back and allow the pressure on the prime minister to build.
Either way, despite her unceremonious sacking on Monday, it seems likely that she will continue to dominate the headlines for some time to come.