Ukrainian forces have established a foothold on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
So what? It’s a small advance in terms of metres on the map but
- a big strategic step across a formidable natural frontier;
- a success that runs counter to the prevailing view that Ukraine’s counter-offensive has failed; and
- an opening to Crimea as soon as Ukraine can muster enough weaponry.
The catch? The stalemate narrative in Russia’s 21-month war of aggression is otherwise accurate, with extremely serious implications for Ukraine and democracy on the one hand and Putinism on the other.
The longer this narrative holds, the more confident Putin will be that he can stay in Ukraine, and the less support Kyiv will be able to rally for the arms it needs to drive him out.
Stock take. Russia occupies more territory than before February last year, but barely half as much as it had seized after the first few weeks of the invasion. Ukrainian forces are now fighting Russia’s army near Avdiivka in the east and across the Dnipro near Kherson in the south.
How to unlock deadlock. General Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top military commander, recently told the Economist what he needs to break through Russia’s entrenched defences:
- air superiority
- improved electronic warfare
- more counter-artillery capability
- new mine-breaching technology, and
- the ability to mobilise and train more reserves.
Where from? Four of these depend on Ukraine’s western allies. While they debate what to give, Ukrainian troops are running low on shells and longer-range guided weapons in the first snows of a long winter.
The Gaza effect. US military aid packages to Ukraine are shrinking in favour of Israel. President Zelensky has said the war in Gaza is affecting Ukraine’s supply of 155 mm artillery shells in particular. EU governments are trying to compensate but the Washington consensus that Ukraine must be given the tools to defend itself at any cost is fraying.
This is
- exactly what Putin wants – to outlast and split Ukraine’s allies; and
- a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy, since no one can win without weapons.
The timing is unfortunate.
Crimea. Having crossed Dnipro – a natural dividing line along the southern battlefront – Ukrainian soldiers have conducted sabotage, raiding and reconnaissance operations on the Kherson front, mapping Russia’s army supply chains and locations of its people and equipment. Further Ukrainian advances on the east bank of Dnipro could push Russian artillery positions back, opening the route towards Russian-held Crimea – the basis of much of Putin’s authority since he annexed it in 2014.
Already the Kherson region damage count favours Ukraine:
Donbas. Ten kilometres from Donetsk (occupied by Russia in 2014), the town of Avdiivka, previously inhabited by 30,000 people, has been under attack by three Russian army battalions since October.
Why Avdiivka matters. Putin needs a win there to reassure his domestic audience, as he did in nearby Bakhmut in May. In terms of strategy:
- For Ukraine, Avdiivka commands the northern approaches to Donetsk.
- For Russia, it would give access to Ukraine’s rail network and a base from which to push northwest towards the strategic Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway.
Russia is experiencing heavy losses in the battle for Avdiivka. Ukrainian losses are heavy too, but Kyiv doesn’t release figures. Its troops are nearly surrounded but recently counterattacked near the Avdiivka Coke Plant – a huge complex of fortified structures next to the main supply road. To go further, they need munitions.
Fine words. In Kyiv, Zelensky has received visits in recent days from the US and German defence ministers, the UK’s new foreign secretary, David Cameron, and from Lachlan Murdoch, the new maharajah of his father’s media empire. All offered support; Cameron promised “whatever it takes”. It will take more than Ukraine is getting now.
