EU officials are expected to release €10 billion to Hungary today after withholding the funds because of the erosion of judicial independence and the rule of law under the government of Viktor Orbán. It’s hoped the climbdown will mean Orbán ends his veto of a €50 billion aid package for Kyiv intended to keep the Ukrainian economy afloat. That would be a win for the Zelensky government, but it’s also a win for Orbán, who has held EU support for Ukraine to ransom and whose admiration for Putin looks undimmed. He became the first western leader to meet Putin since the start of the war in Ukraine when they shook hands at a conference in Beijing in October. European Commission officials say they’re surprised at how many reforms they’ve forced on Budapest in return for the money, but Daniel Freund, a centre-left German MEP, tells Politico the deal sends a “devastating signal” about Orbán’s power to bend and break EU rules. Ministers meet in Brussels later this week to discuss how to support Ukraine through the winter.