Russian military plane crashes near Ukrainian border

On Wednesday, Russia claimed that Ukraine, using missiles made by Western allies, shot down an Il-76 cargo plane with 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war (PoWs) on board. A plane did crash. But everything else is uncertain.

A video showed the plane exploded not in the air but on the ground; there was no information released in Russian media about the plane’s crew and unverified footage from the site did not show any bodies. 

What is known:

• A Russian Il-76 aircraft crashed near the village of Yablonovo, 70km (44 miles) to the north-east of the city of Belgorod, at about 11:00 local time (08:00 GMT). Explosion followed by a fireball happened after the plane went down; 
• Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence commented that a prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine was due to take place on Wednesday, 24 January, and that Russian military servicemen were “delivered to the agreed location in time to be exchanged, and they were safe there”. After the plane crash, the swap did not happen;
• The death of at least three out of six Russian cargo plane crew members was confirmed by their relatives to the Ukrainian investigative “Schemy” project (Radio Liberty). The crew belonged to the 117th Military Transport Aviation Regiment, stationed in Orenburg and serving military vehicles carrying special cargo for the Russian army.

What is not known:

• The plane’s tail number (earlier, Ukrainian journalist Ilya Ponomarenko linked the fallen Il-76 with tail number RA-78830 which flew to Iran and Egypt and the last known position of which was over the Mediterranean Sea, but later he deleted his post on X).
• The purpose and direction of the flight: Russian defense ministry said the plane had taken off from Chkalovsky air base north-east of Moscow en route to Belgorod, while Russian independent Ateo-breaking Telegram channel says it was returning to Chkalovsky air base after its regular “Middle East patrol”.
• Who/what was on board: Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan published a list of 65 names of Ukrainian PoWs she alleges were on board, but one of them – Sergeant Maxym Konovalenko – was swapped earlier. Cargo planes like Il-76 can transport missiles and personnel.

Ukraine’s Zelensky has called for an international inquiry. He said: “It is clear that the Russians are playing with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners, the feelings of their loved ones and the emotions of our society.”

Russia’s track history of muddying the truth is long: remember the downing of flight MH17, where Russia denied involvement, or the death of at least 50 Ukrainian prisoners of war in an explosion at Olenivka prison.

Until independent investigators are allowed to inspect the site, the truth may not be known. The worst thing is that even if there were no Ukrainian PoWs on board – Russia has still declared them dead.