Right bling: war for the Telegraph

Nick Hugh, CEO of the Telegraph Media Group, resigned this morning, on the day the UK’s media regulator, Ofcom, was due to give the culture secretary its advice on whether the Daily Telegraph can be sold to an investment vehicle backed by the UAE.

So what? Hugh’s departure was anticipated – he is understood to have asked to step down two weeks ago. Ofcom’s decision could go a long way towards deciding

• the fate of dozens of Telegraph journalists;
• the outcome of twin battles for the soul of the paper and the Conservative Party; and
• whether the former remains the house journal of the latter or strikes out under new international management in search of new international readers.

He who controls the Telegraph controls the Party – at least according to Dominic Cummings, who claimed Boris Johnson referred to the Telegraph as his “real boss”. The Telegraph is certainly the notice board for the Conservative right as they jostle for control of the party. And it’s a spectacular fray. This week alone…

• Simon Clarke MP used the paper to demand a leadership contest to replace Rishi Sunak.
• Redbird IMI – the paper’s UAE-backed owner-in-waiting – told the government it will establish a new UK-based holding company for the Telegraph.
• More results from an extensive recent YouGov poll commissioned by the previously unknown Conservative Britain Alliance said the public would back a “new, tax-cutting Tory leader with a tougher approach to legal and illegal migration”.
• Culture secretary Lucy Frazer said she was minded to call a second investigation by both Ofcom and the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) into the RedBird deal. 
• A former British Army officer, Colonel Richard Kemp, evaluated Telegraph writers as ideal fodder for the armed forces. 

Who currently controls the Telegraph? The paper is still legally overseen by the board of independent directors appointed by the receiver. Frazer has already intervened to stop a restructure of the company and technically this would prevent Hughes departure, although as it is voluntary it is permitted. 

Who will control the Telegraph? Frantic lobbying by Tory and Telegraph grandees is trying to frame RedBird’s purchase as handing editorial control to an autocratic middle eastern state. Paul Marshall, the hedge fund owner and part owner of GB News, is the right’s favoured bidder. Marshall backed Michael Gove’s leadership campaign and is an ally of the right-wing New Conservatives Group, co-chaired by Danny Kruger MP (and not to be confused with the Conservative Britain Alliance).

Who does the Tory party want to control the Telegraph? The party is split. George Osborne (hired as an adviser by RedBird), investment minister Dominic Johnson, Gavin Williamson, Brandon Lewis, Lord Cameron and Daniel Kawczynski are all pro-RedBird. Danny Kruger, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Iain Duncan Smith and Alicia Kearns are all against.

Who can stop RedBird? RedBird’s new UK holding company proposal makes it more attractive to regulators, suggesting previous editorial oversight did not fully satisfy Ofcom.

“It’s a very clever move by Redbird because it buys them more time to put forward remedies that will satisfy the Secretary of State, Ofcom and the CMA,” says Alice Enders, an analyst at Enders Analysis. “It’s going to make all the bidders in the original auction – Paul Marshall, DMGT, National World – gnaw their fingernails.”

What will Ofcom say today? Its findings are unlikely to be made public unless Frazer chooses – or exercises her option to refer the sale to the CMA, which takes up to 32 weeks to rule. If Frazer demands a second two-month Ofcom inquiry and then refers the bid to the CMA there is a better-than-average chance that the final recommendation comes after the election. Many of the New Conservatives Group are vulnerable Red Wall MPs. If Frazer plays a long enough game, she could dodge right-wing rage. 
What’s more: Prominent Telegraph journalists have indicated they’ll resign if Redbird takes over. The party they cover is “in a fight for its soul,” with rebels attacking the PM but none willing to stand against him, says Jane Martinson, author of You May Never See Us Again – an account of previous Telegraph owners the Barclay brothers. This we know: whoever’s left there will have plenty to write about.