Culture Society, Identity and Belonging
On the last day of Westminster’s term before Easter, Rishi Sunak carried out a mini reshuffle, prompted by the resignation of two ministers and the defection of a former deputy party chairman to Reform.
The timing has fuelled speculation that another challenge to Sunak’s leadership of the Conservative Party is imminent. There was no need for him to replace James Heappey, the longstanding armed forces minister, or Robert Halfon, an education minister, this side of local elections on 2 May.
Both men are standing down as MPs at the next general election (taking the total number of Tory MPs quitting the Commons this Parliament to 63) but were willing to stay in government until then. A reshuffle immediately after what is widely expected to be a drubbing at the polls might have helped Sunak. The question is whether he’d have time for one.
So, why not? As one former minister put it, Sunak “might not have time [for another reshuffle] then”. Speculation is rife that the number of no-confidence letters are edging closer to the threshold of 53 that would trigger a contest – and that Sunak might then walk away.
After Number 10’s mishandling of the Frank Hester donor row, there was a flurry of hostile briefings suggesting that Commons leader Penny Mordaunt and the security minister, Tom Tugendhat, were vying to replace Sunak.
Little Parliamentary business is being done: legislation is being pulled or watered down for fear of rebellions by backbenchers who can no longer be cajoled by carrot or stick. MPs have been pestered to attend manifesto-building committees with little success. Tugendhat has denied the reports that he seeks the top job. Mordaunt, who tops ConservativeHome’s league table of ministers, has been less emphatic. She asked the Telegraph to correct a story saying she had visited 40 party associations since Sunak was made PM. The number was, she said, more than 70.
Regicidal maniacs. The only thing holding someTory MPs back is the knowledge that they have been here before. Sunak is their third party leader since 2019 and their fifth since 2016. But there is also a view that doing nothing risks greater damage. The signs are dire: polling expert and Tortoise contributor Sir John Curtice said yesterday there was a “99 per cent chance of Labour forming the next administration”.
Some are turning to damage limitation. As one senior backbencher said: “I am not one of those people who says ‘we will just look ridiculous’: we already do. If this is about salvaging the party from a fate of 100-something MPs [after an election] … it may be worthwhile.”
War gaming. Westminster is preparing for three possibilities after 2 May: Sunak is challenged and walks; Sunak calls a snap election to ward off a challenge; or the rebels lose their nerve and he limps on. By that point, the number of Tories voting with their feet could rival the 100 Labour MPs who stood down ahead of their 2010 electoral defeat.
