UK local elections: The two mayors who could decide Sunak’s fate

Rishi Sunak’s political future lies in the hands of a select number of British voters in local elections tomorrow. 

So what? He’s unlikely to welcome their verdict.

• Voting will probably reflect an historic 33 point swing against Sunak’s Conservatives in opinion polls since 2021.
• Context. Council deficits are forecast to reach £4 billion in all over the next two years and even well-run councils are struggling to pay for basic services.
• Challenge? The Conservatives have been losing control of councils for the past six years and Labour has been gaining them since the 2008 crash. A drubbing for the Tories is a given. If it’s an earthquake, a leadership challenge will surely follow.

Meaningful mayors. The focus is currently on whether two Tory mayors – Andy Street in the West Midlands and Ben Houchen in Tees Valley – keep their positions. If they don’t, that could be a trigger for no confidence letters from backbench MPs leading to a party vote on whether to replace Sunak.

Number 10 has been managing expectations accordingly: A YouGov poll this week, giving Houchen a six point lead over his Labour rival and putting Street two points clear, is being heralded as “good news” for Sunak. The reality is somewhat different. 

Levelling down. In 2021, Houchen won his seat with nearly 73 per cent of the vote; reward for positioning himself as a poster boy for public-private urban regeneration in the northeast. The YouGov polling suggests a 20 point swing in Tees Valley from Tory to Labour since then. As one rival pollster said: “Any narrative that declares Tees Valley staying blue as a locals victory is not serious.”

Quality Street. A former managing director of John Lewis, Street also did well in 2021 on his personal brand and has remained largely independent since (to the annoyance of some Tories sent to campaign on his behalf). If the YouGov poll is right, it would imply that distance from Sunak – including a threat to resign over his decision to curtail the HS2 rail line – is a smart tactic. 

Major problem. According to an Ipsos poll on Thursday, Sunak’s personal approval rating has fallen to minus 59, matching the record low for a prime minister set by Sir John Major in 1994.

Canaries. That these two mayors are being linked to Sunak says two things:

• Expectations are so low that retaining someone sitting on the kind of majority that would make a dictator blush is considered success. 
• Their defeat would bring Sunak down. 

Footsoldiers. Voters will have their say on 107 councils, 10 metro mayors and a parliamentary by-election in Blackpool South. Estimates suggest the Tories could lose more than 400 seats, with Labour gaining 200-250 and the Liberal Democrats winning 100. In the last set of locals, the Tories tried to lower expectations, but even then the result was worse than the worst predictions.

More than 14,000 council seats are not in play, but the Conservatives’ losses will still deplete their campaigning strength in the general election.

More to watch. If the Tories lose Dorset and Gloucester councils to the Liberal Democrats that could presage LibDem gains across the southwest. If Labour loses seats in Hastings and the northwest to former members running as independents because of the party’s support for Israel, that could temper forecasts of a Westminster landslide for Sir Keir Starmer.

Goblin mode. Team Sunak has gone on a pre-campaign policy blitz, forcing his flagship Rwanda legislation through Parliament and announcing an increase in defence spending and a squeeze on benefits. The jury is out on whether any of these will move the dial tomorrow. Their impact will have been blunted anyway by the defection last week of former health minister Dan Poulter to Labour after 14 years as a Tory MP.  

Next up: a post-campaign blitz to include getting tougher on student migration and hiking defence spending further. But talk of a leadership contest is never far from people’s lips.