To win on 4 July, the Conservatives will have to come back from an average poll deficit of 21 points.
So what? Almost no one except Rishi Sunak is betting it will happen.
Most of his own MPs were blindsided and many are unhappy at the prospect of losing their seats four months earlier than expected. Why then did he call it for 4 July instead of November? The answer isn’t obvious, but a case can be made that sooner will be less bad than later for his party:
- Inflation. It’s under control but not low enough to clear the way for the three rate cuts the government was hoping for by the autumn (more below).
- Recession. It was short and shallow, and it’s over. One government economist calls the UK’s 0.6 per cent first quarter growth “gangbusters”.
- Migration. The cross-channel migration season in small boats has yet to peak, and Sunak’s flagship deportation scheme to Rwanda is not definitively grounded.
- Sunshine. There should be more of it in high summer than November, lifting voters’ mood and making it easier to persuade activists to help with the campaign.
- Health. July is as far as it gets from the annual NHS winter crisis.
Downstream. A July election should also be out of the way before the bills come due for a cluster of expensive commitments including £10 billion in compensation for victims of the infected blood scandal and whatever it costs to keep Thames Water functioning (it needs at least £2.5 billion and may have to be nationalised next month).
Now looks better. The inflation and growth numbers mean Sunak can claim to be restoring economic stability. Whether anyone is listening is an open question, but the pitch-rolling was already underway last week.
Getting wetter. Sunak and his chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, gave set piece speeches in which they said Labour would undermine national security and raise taxes respectively. The PM reprised some of these points from his sodden lectern yesterday in Downing Street, largely drowned out by the rain and a protester blasting Things Can Only Get Better – the theme song for New Labour’s 1997 victory.
New old Labour. Keir Starmer’s response – indoors – was a pitch for change as an alternative to chaos, which is an idea Labour hears a lot about in focus groups. It’s vague and clichéd but if Tory morale is anything to go by, it’s working.
Managed decline. Few Conservative MPs genuinely believe they can pull off a win. The calculation on timing is about minimising losses. Tories point to the electoral mountain that Labour will have to climb to secure a majority, let alone a landslide, as part of an argument that Starmer may be a one-term prime minister.
Yet even with expectations close to rock bottom, Sunak’s campaign got off to a bad start.
- He couldn’t control the weather but still failed to consider the optics of stepping out into a downpour.
- He opened his speech with a reminder of furlough and the depths of the pandemic rather than a prescription for what ails schools, policing or the NHS.
- There were instant briefings that senior ministers had pushed back against the early election, and a slew of MPs announcing they would not be standing.
- Those who remain told Tortoise they were “perplexed” by the decision to go early. Others were said to have gone “ballistic”.
Regardless of the logic, it’s safe to say that for many Conservatives, going early seems like political suicide.
What’s more… In a week when victims of the contaminated blood scandal, the Horizon scandal and the Manchester Arena terror attack were all looking to leaders in Westminster for answers, some felt the timing was crass.
